In a world where the post World War II order of relative peace and predictable alliances is fraying at the edges, recent statements from U.S. administration have sent ripples through global capitals, particularly in Europe. With tariffs on trading partners and provocative claims that Canada and Greenland should be part of the U.S., these remarks underscore a shifting geopolitical landscape that demands urgent attention from European leaders and businesses.

This isn't mere rhetoric; it's a wake up call for Europe's technology sector, where reliance on U.S. policies for everything from export controls to critical infrastructure is increasingly precarious.

The backdrop is a broader pattern of U.S. assertiveness under Project 2025, a conservative blueprint that prioritizes American interests with little regard for traditional alliances. Recent tariffs on imports from Europe and Asia have already strained supply chains for electronics and automotive industries, raising costs for components like batteries and chips. All of this resonates deeply with the themes in my latest work, European Technology Risk Assessment - Revision 2.

This ebook, designed for European executives, policymakers, and technical staff, dissects how these geopolitical flashpoints; U.S. policy shifts, Russian hybrid warfare, and Chinese strategic ambitions; expose vulnerabilities in critical technology domains. Chapter 2 delves into the interlocking threats, from Russia's infrastructure attrition in Ukraine to China's dominance in rare earths and semiconductors. The recent U.S. actions amplify these risks, as tariffs could exacerbate shortages in AI hardware and cloud infrastructure, while Arctic tensions threaten undersea cables vital for data flows.

In Chapter 3, we examine core domains like telecommunications and energy systems, where physical sabotage risks (e.g., Baltic Sea cables) intersect with supply chain dependencies. Trump's Greenland push highlights the fragility of rare earths sourcing, essential for EVs and wind turbines, as noted in the chapter's analysis of China's 60% control over processing. These aren't abstract; a disrupted supply could halt European manufacturing within weeks, as seen in the ebook's "Taiwan Blockade" scenario in Chapter 6.

Chapter 4 focuses on AI and dual use technologies, where U.S. export controls on model weights and chips (e.g., NVIDIA GPUs) create chokepoints. With Europe trailing in quantum computing and edge AI, Trump's territorial ambitions could limit access to critical tech, forcing a pivot to EU initiatives like the Quantum Flagship. The ebook's pathways to sovereignty—such as adopting Mistral AI and enforcing the EU AI Act—offer practical steps for businesses to mitigate these dependencies.

The internet core, covered in Chapter 5, is particularly vulnerable. BGP routing, DNS resolution, and TLS/PKI security rely on U.S. influenced systems, making them susceptible to hijacking or revocation in a "Transatlantic Tech Rift" (Chapter 6). Carney's call for diversified networks aligns with our recommendations for RPKI mandates and DNS4EU adoption, ensuring resilience against disruptions like those implied in Trump's aggressive posture.

Regulatory landscapes in Chapter 7 reveal gaps in EU frameworks like NIS2 and GDPR, where compliance doesn't guarantee resilience against U.S. CLOUD Act overreach. As tariffs and alliances shift, the ebook urges pre approved crisis protocols. Chapter 8's mitigation framework;- diversification, zero trust, continuity planning; equips enterprises to navigate this, with tools like Gaia-X for sovereign cloud.

Finally, Chapter 9 advocates public/private collaboration, from ENISA threat sharing to a European Critical Technology Reserve. In light of Trump's statements, such coalitions are essential to counter fragmentation and build collective defense.

The last 80 years have seen a stable world order, but that era may be ending. Europe's response must be swift: audit dependencies, invest in sovereignty, and foster alliances. European Technology Risk Assessment provides the roadmap, get it now to safeguard your operations in this new reality.

Glen Birkbeck is the author of European Technology Risk Assessment.

Get the full ebook here.